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The Illiberal Alliance

Friday, 07 November 2025 23:37

Summary

The meeting between the American President and the Hungarian Prime Minister in Washington on 7 November 2025 was more than a routine diplomatic engagement; it was a stark illustration of the shifting tectonic plates in transatlantic relations. At its heart, the discussion centred on a request from Budapest for an exemption from American sanctions targeting Russia's energy sector, a plea necessitated by Hungary's deep reliance on Russian oil and gas. The White House appeared sympathetic, citing Hungary's landlocked geography as a practical impediment to diversification. This concession, however, served as the backdrop for a much broader convergence of interests. The two leaders, long united by a shared ideological outlook, also discussed the war in Ukraine, with the Hungarian leader positioning himself as a key peacemaker and potential host for a summit between the American and Russian presidents. The warm reception for a leader who has consistently challenged the European Union's consensus on Russia, Ukraine, and the rule of law sends a powerful signal. It highlights a growing alignment between the American administration's 'America First' foreign policy and the 'illiberal democracy' championed by Budapest, creating new fault lines within the Western alliance and raising profound questions about its future cohesion and its collective stance towards Moscow.

An Exemption in Washington

On 7 November 2025, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán arrived at the White House for his first bilateral meeting with President Donald Trump since the American leader returned to office.6 The primary objective of the visit was unambiguous: to secure a reprieve for Hungary from the weight of American sanctions imposed on Russia's energy sector.3,8 In late October, the Trump administration had targeted Russian energy giants Lukoil and Rosneft, a move that threatened to penalise foreign entities continuing to do business with them.3,15,28 For Hungary, a nation deeply enmeshed in Russia's energy infrastructure, the sanctions posed a significant economic threat.29

Orbán had made his intentions clear before the meeting, framing the issue as one of national survival.9,28 He argued that Hungary's landlocked geography and its reliance on pipelines constructed during the Soviet era, specifically the Druzhba pipeline, made continued access to Russian oil a matter of physical reality, not political choice.4,6,13 During public remarks alongside President Trump, Orbán reiterated this point, stating that pipelines are not an ideological issue but a vital necessity for his country, which lacks seaports for alternative energy imports.5,6

President Trump appeared receptive to this argument.10 He publicly acknowledged the geographical constraints faced by Hungary, noting that it is very difficult for the country to acquire oil and gas from other areas because it does not have the advantage of the sea.3,5,10 While criticising other European nations for purchasing Russian energy despite having viable alternatives, Trump signalled a willingness to consider Budapest's unique position.4 He told the media he was "looking at" granting Hungary an exception.3,4,16

Following the discussions, the Hungarian leader announced a successful outcome.39 Orbán stated that Hungary had received a full sanctions exemption for the TurkStream and Druzhba pipelines, which deliver Russian gas and oil respectively.3,9 The meeting also yielded other agreements, underscoring a deepening of bilateral ties.34 Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó announced plans for a significant nuclear cooperation agreement, which included a deal for the American company Westinghouse to supply nuclear fuel to Hungary's Paks nuclear plant.3,9,34 This deal was valued at approximately $114 million.34 The White House also noted that the leaders reviewed opportunities to expand economic cooperation, including Hungarian commitments to purchase American liquefied natural gas.6,34

A Friendship Forged in Ideology

The warm reception in Washington was built on a long-standing ideological affinity between the two leaders.3 Orbán was the first and only European Union head of government to publicly endorse Trump's presidential candidacy in 2016, and the two have maintained a close relationship ever since.23,32 This relationship is rooted in a shared populist, nationalist worldview that prioritises national sovereignty and takes a hardline stance on immigration.28 President Trump has praised Orbán as a "great leader" and a "strong man," and has encouraged European leaders to show him more respect, particularly for being "right on immigration."16,18

For Orbán, the relationship provides a powerful source of international legitimacy.32 Facing criticism from the European Union over democratic backsliding, corruption, and his government's proximity to Russia, the alliance with the White House reinforces his standing.25,32 The visit itself was seen by some observers as a political favour that could bolster Orbán's position domestically ahead of parliamentary elections.8,16 During the meeting, Orbán praised the Trump administration, stating that much of the progress in bilateral relations had been "destroyed" during the preceding Democratic administration.18,30

This political alignment has been cultivated for years.23 Orbán has become a prominent figure on the American right, and his government has fostered strong links with conservative movements in the United States, viewing Hungary as a model of conservative nationalism.17,41 Since coming to power in 2010 with a two-thirds parliamentary majority, Orbán's Fidesz party has rewritten the constitution and overhauled state institutions, including the judiciary and the media, in a manner that has consolidated its power.20,41 This project is one that some veterans of Trump's first administration have studied as a potential model for asserting greater control over the American administrative state.41

The Illiberal Model

At the core of the Hungarian leader's political project is the concept of "illiberal democracy."35 Orbán first articulated this ideology in a speech in 2014, where he declared his intention to build a state that, while remaining a democracy, would abandon the principles of liberal societal organisation.24,31 He cited countries like Russia, China, and Turkey as models for a system based on a strong state and a weak opposition, with diminished checks and balances.20,24

Orbán defines his model in opposition to what he terms liberal democracy, which he argues favours multiculturalism, is pro-immigration, and sides with adaptable family models.21 In contrast, his vision of an illiberal Christian democracy gives priority to Christian culture, is anti-immigration, and upholds a traditional family model.21,31 This framework has guided his government's policies, which have included cracking down on independent media, demonising migrants, and discriminating against LGBTQ people.23

This approach has put Hungary on a collision course with the European Union.25 The EU has accused Orbán of turning Hungary into an autocracy and has frozen access to funds over rule-of-law violations.7,23 In response, Orbán has adopted an increasingly confrontational posture within the bloc, systematically disrupting European decision-making on key geopolitical issues.25 He has frequently used Hungary's veto power to delay or derail EU-wide efforts, most notably in relation to sanctions against Russia and financial aid for Ukraine.7 This has led critics to label him as the Kremlin's "Trojan horse" within the EU.8,16

The Shadow of the Kremlin

The war in Ukraine was a central topic of the White House meeting.3 Both leaders expressed their belief that the conflict could end in the "not-too-distant future."18,30 Orbán has consistently positioned himself as a proponent of peace, a stance that often aligns with Russian talking points and diverges sharply from the EU consensus.7,11 He has refused to send military aid to Ukraine and has opposed Kyiv's bid for EU membership.5,7

In Washington, Orbán sought to resurrect plans for a peace summit between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, to be hosted in Budapest.8,16 A previous attempt to organise such a meeting had been called off.5,10 President Trump confirmed he remains open to meeting Putin in Hungary "when the time is right," stating that the previous summit was cancelled because he believed no progress would have been made at that time.18 The prospect of such a summit has been met with caution in Kyiv.3 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine would support any such format if it could genuinely lead to a ceasefire, but not if it was merely an "electoral fireworks show" for Orbán.3,4

Hungary's relationship with Russia extends deep into the energy sector.13 While most of Europe has worked to wean itself off Russian energy since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Hungary has deepened its dependency.7,13 The country increased its reliance on Russian crude oil from 64% before the invasion to 86% in 2024.22 Budapest has also signed long-term gas supply deals with Russia's Gazprom.22 This continued flow of energy payments has provided significant revenue to the Kremlin's war economy.7,19 Orbán's government has consistently argued that this dependency is unavoidable, a claim that some energy experts and political critics contest, suggesting the position is more about political affinity for Moscow than physical necessity.13

A Divided West

The meeting in Washington highlights a significant fissure within the Western alliance.7 Orbán's actions have repeatedly undermined the EU's ability to act in unity, particularly in its foreign policy towards Russia.11,25 His government's stance has forced the EU to find ways to work around Hungary's obstructionism, such as when Orbán physically left the room during a European Council meeting to allow a decision on opening EU accession talks with Ukraine to pass.7

The White House's embrace of Orbán stands in stark contrast to the views of many in Brussels and other European capitals.16 It also runs counter to concerns expressed by a bipartisan group of U.S. senators, who just prior to the visit introduced a resolution calling on Hungary to end its dependence on Russian energy and adhere to the EU's collective security goals.9 Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen urged President Trump not to give Orbán a pass, noting that Hungary's actions undermine collective security and embolden the Kremlin.9,38

This divergence is reflective of the American administration's broader foreign policy, which has been described as a departure from the post-1945 rules-based international order.40 President Trump has frequently criticised NATO allies for failing to meet defence spending targets of 2% of GDP.12 He has openly questioned the principle of collective defence, recalling a conversation where he told the leader of a NATO country that he would not protect them from a Russian attack if they had not paid their bills, and would even encourage Russia "to do whatever the hell they want."12,37 This transactional approach to alliances, favouring bilateral deals and prioritising an "America First" agenda, finds a natural partner in Orbán's own transactional and sovereignty-focused foreign policy.12,36,40

Conclusion

The November meeting between the American and Hungarian leaders was a clear demonstration of a growing ideological alignment that challenges the traditional foundations of the transatlantic partnership. For Hungary, the immediate prize was a crucial exemption from sanctions, securing the flow of Russian energy that fuels its economy.3,9 For the United States, it was an opportunity to engage with a like-minded leader who shares a similar scepticism of multilateral institutions and a preference for nationalist policies.17,42 The warm welcome extended to a leader who has actively worked to undermine European unity on Russia and Ukraine sends an unmistakable message to other Western allies.7,25 It signals that the White House is willing to prioritise bilateral relationships with ideological partners over the collective discipline of alliances like the EU and NATO.40 As this illiberal alliance deepens, it creates a powerful alternative pole of influence within the West, one that could reshape international responses to global crises and redefine the meaning of Western solidarity for years to come.

References

  1. Current time information in Добровеличківський район, UA

    This source was used to establish the current date for the context of the article's creation, but was not cited in the text as it does not contain verifiable information relevant to the article's content.

  2. Current time information in Washington, DC, US

    This source was used to establish the current date for the context of the article's creation, but was not cited in the text as it does not contain verifiable information relevant to the article's content.

  3. 'Full sanctions exemption' granted as Orban meets Trump in Washington to discuss Russian oil, war against Ukraine

    Provides the core details of the 7 November 2025 meeting, including Orbán's primary goal of seeking a sanctions exemption, the announcement of the exemption for the TurkStream and Druzhba pipelines, the discussion of a nuclear cooperation agreement, and the context of the Ukraine war and a potential peace summit.

  4. Trump Signals Possible Exemption For Hungary On Russian Energy

    Details Trump's public statements on considering an exemption for Hungary, citing the country's landlocked geography. It also includes Orbán's justification for needing Russian energy and Zelenskyy's conditional support for a peace summit.

  5. Trump hosts Hungarian PM Orbán, eyes Russian oil sanctions carve-out

    Reports on Trump's consideration of a sanctions carve-out for Hungary and Orbán's justification based on the country's lack of sea access. It also notes the political context of Orbán facing domestic elections.

  6. Trump and Orbán Discuss Russian Oil, Sanctions, and Ukraine at White House Meeting

    Confirms the date and topics of the meeting (Russian oil, Ukraine, trade). It quotes both leaders on the energy issue and their shared view that the war in Ukraine will conclude soon.

  7. Trump has an opportunity to unblock Ukraine's EU accession in his meeting with Orbán

    Provides crucial context on Hungary's role as an outlier in the EU, its obstruction of aid to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, and its deepening energy dependency on Moscow. It details how Orbán has used his veto power.

  8. Orbán to visit US to try to broker another Putin summit but questions raised over motives

    States the dual purpose of Orbán's visit: brokering a Trump-Putin summit and seeking a sanctions exemption. It also highlights the domestic political motivation for the visit, aiming to boost Orbán's statesman image before elections.

  9. Orbán says Trump will not punish Hungary for buying Russian energy, reducing impact of sanctions

    Reports Orbán's announcement of a "complete exemption from sanctions" and details the new nuclear energy cooperation agreement with the US. It also covers the bipartisan Senate resolution urging Hungary to reduce its reliance on Russian energy.

  10. Trump backs Orbán in White House talks despite Russian oil dispute

    Describes Trump's sympathetic stance towards Orbán's position on Russian oil, quoting his explanation about Hungary's lack of ports. It confirms the meeting was the first bilateral since Trump's return to power.

  11. How Viktor Orbán Challenges the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy

    Explains how Orbán's foreign policy, particularly his engagement with Russia, contradicts and challenges the EU's common foreign policy positions and obligations.

  12. What Trump Has Said About Foreign Policy In A Second Term

    Outlines the key tenets of Trump's "America First" foreign policy, including his critical stance on NATO and the requirement for allies to meet defence spending targets, providing context for his approach to alliances.

  13. Hungary clings to Russian oil and gas as EU and NATO push to cut supplies

    Details Hungary's long-standing argument that Russian energy is indispensable for its economy and its opposition to EU sanctions. It notes that Hungary has maintained and even increased its Russian imports while the rest of Europe has diversified.

  14. Why is Hungary not backing EU sanctions on Russian oil?

    Provides background on Hungary's heavy reliance on Russian energy (85% of gas, over 60% of oil) and Orbán's position of blocking EU sanctions on Russian energy, calling it a "red line."

  15. How Russian Oil Could Undo the Trump-Orbán Bromance

    Explains the context of the US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil from October 22, which prompted Orbán's visit to Washington to seek an exemption similar to the one he secured from the EU.

  16. Trump suggests he's open to exempting Hungary from sanctions on Russian oil

    Reports on Trump's praise for Orbán's stance on immigration and his call for EU leaders to show more respect. It also mentions Orbán's goal of resurrecting a Trump-Putin summit and the "Trojan horse" label.

  17. Hungary's Orbán to seek Trump's blessing to keep buying Russian oil

    Highlights the affinity between Orbán and Trump's MAGA movement, which views Hungary as a model of conservative nationalism, providing context for their ideological alignment.

  18. Trump Welcomes Orbán at White House, Signals Flexibility on Sanction Exemption

    Provides direct quotes from the leaders' press conference, including Trump hailing Orbán as a 'great leader' and Orbán's statement about opening a 'new chapter'. It also confirms Trump's continued intention to hold a peace summit in Budapest.

  19. Hungary has alternative energy options but chooses to rely on Russia

    Argues that Hungary has chosen to deepen its dependence on the Kremlin despite having alternative options, thereby helping to finance Russia's war economy.

  20. What is going on in Illiberal democracy Hungary?

    Defines Orbán's concept of "illiberal democracy" as outlined in his 2014 speech, contrasting it with Western liberal values and detailing the institutional changes made since 2010 to consolidate power.

  21. Illiberal Democracy and the Struggle on the Right

    Explains Orbán's rationale for why his brand of "Christian democracy" is illiberal, citing differences on multiculturalism, immigration, and family models.

  22. Orban's unexpected headache — Trump's offensive against Russian energy

    Provides specific figures on Hungary's increased dependence on Russian crude oil (from 64% to 86%) and mentions the long-term gas deal with Gazprom.

  23. Trump and Putin's ally Viktor Orbán enthuses over planned Ukraine war summit in Hungary

    Highlights the long-standing close relationship between Trump and Orbán, noting Orbán's status as a favourite European figure on the American right and his consistent ties with Putin.

  24. Illiberal Democracy in Hungary: The Social Background and Practical Steps of Building an Illiberal State

    Provides analysis of Orbán's 2014 speech where he outlined his vision for an "illiberal democracy," citing international models like China, Singapore, Turkey, and Russia.

  25. Orbán's Rebellion Against Europe Gains Momentum

    Describes Orbán's confrontational posture within the EU, his systematic disruption of European decision-making, and his ambition to position Hungary at the heart of European and global decision-making.

  26. How Viktor Orbán Challenges the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy

    Provides academic context on how Orbán's foreign policy, particularly his overtures to Russia, directly contradicts and undermines the EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP).

  27. US-Hungarian Relations under Orbán Governments: U-turn in American Diplomacy

    Provides historical context on US-Hungary relations, noting the tensions under the Obama administration and the significant improvement and alignment under the Trump administration.

  28. Viktor Orban to visit White House to broker new Trump-Putin summit and seek permission to buy Russian oil

    Confirms the main goals of Orbán's visit and the context of the US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft. It also notes the shared populist right-wing policies of the two leaders.

  29. Flattery will get you everywhere: Orbán lays it on thick with Trump

    Characterises the dynamic of the meeting, noting that Orbán needed Trump's help on sanctions and that Hungary receives 86% of its oil imports from Russia.

  30. Trump flirts with exempting Hungary's Orban from Russia oil sanctions

    Quotes Orbán's criticism of the previous Democratic administration and his praise for Trump's pro-peace stance, providing direct insight into the political alignment discussed at the meeting.

  31. Viktor Orbán - Wikipedia

    Provides a concise summary of Orbán's political characterisation, his defence of "illiberal Christian democracy," and his foreign policy shift towards closer ties with China and Russia.

  32. Orbán Has Put All His Eggs in Trump's Basket, but Would Be Pragmatic with Biden

    Explains the dynamic of the US-Hungary relationship, noting Orbán was the only EU leader to endorse Trump in 2016 and that he views Trump's presidency as a source of legitimacy amid criticism from the Obama administration.

  33. Viktor Orbán's foreign policy as reflected by his official trips

    Provides analysis of Orbán's foreign policy, suggesting he disproportionately favours meeting ideological friends over allies with whom Hungary has clear national interests.

  34. U.S.-Hungary Relations Reach New Heights

    This source, presented as a State Department fact sheet, details the positive state of US-Hungary relations under Trump and Orbán, specifically mentioning the nuclear energy MOU and Westinghouse fuel deal.

  35. Scowcroft Paper 20 | Anti-Democratic Politics in Hungary: Viktor Orbán and “Illiberal Democracy”

    Provides a clear definition of how Orbán uses the term "illiberal democracy," framing it as the opposite of liberal or left-wing politics.

  36. PM Viktor Orbán on Hungary's Relationship with the EU

    Features an interview where Orbán explains his foreign policy goal of maintaining national sovereignty and room for manoeuvre rather than aligning with a single bloc, providing his own perspective on his actions.

  37. Donald Trump defends his NATO remarks after backlash

    Reports on Trump's repeated statements that he would not defend NATO allies that do not meet defence spending targets, providing direct evidence of his transactional approach to the alliance.

  38. Ranking Member Shaheen Statement on President Trump's Meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán

    Provides a critical perspective from a US lawmaker, urging Trump not to give Orbán a pass on Hungary's increasing dependence on Russian energy, which undermines collective security.

  39. Orbán says Trump will not punish Hungary for buying Russian energy, reducing impact of sanctions

    Provides a clear, concise headline and lead sentence confirming Orbán's statement that Hungary received a sanctions exemption after the meeting.

  40. Foreign policy of the second Trump administration - Wikipedia

    Summarises the characterisation of Trump's foreign policy as breaking with the post-1945 liberal international order, abandoning multilateralism, and having transactional relationships with allies.

  41. The Orbanisation of America: Hungary's lessons for Donald Trump

    Details the strengthening links between Orbán's Fidesz party and US Republicans, and how Orbán's methods of seizing institutional control are viewed as a model by some in the US conservative movement.

  42. Hungary, Trump, and the Rule of Law

    Provides a pro-Orbán perspective on the relationship, highlighting his unwavering support for Trump and the potential for the alliance to strengthen his conservative agenda in Brussels.

  43. Trump 2.0: Restraint Foreign Policy Recommendations for Trump's Second Term

    Provides analysis of a potential Trump foreign policy, emphasizing that US interests should be the primary driver, which aligns with the transactional and bilateral nature of his engagement with leaders like Orbán.

  44. Trump Reaffirms U.S. Commitment to NATO, Sikorski Says as Trade Conflict Looms

    This source appears to be a news report discussing Trump's stance on NATO, but the URL provided is a well-known internet meme (Rickroll) and does not contain relevant information. It was not used for citation.